The Math Behind The PM's Push For The Uniform Civil Code And The Role Of The AAP

 

In light of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's most recent call for a uniform civil code for all Indians, there is speculation that the BJP would attempt to pass legislation enacting this in time for the general election in 2024.

Is the ruling party large enough to pass legislation through Parliament? that is the major question. It will be a stroll in the park in Lok Sabha, where the BJP has a comfortable majority. What about Rajya Sabha, though?

A New Prospect

Now, a comment made by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), one of the BJP's fiercest competitors, has generated a new school of thinking. A senior member of the Arvind Kejriwal-led party stated Wednesday that the party "in principle" supports the call for a uniform civil code, but that efforts must be made to forge a consensus through consultations with relevant parties.

Rajya Sabha Mathematics

Eight seats in the Upper House's current 237-member membership remain unfilled. There are two nominees for the two open seats. The majority score is thus 119. The BJP has 92 MPs, the AIADMK, one of its allies, has four, and seven other smaller parties have one apiece. The total comes to 103. The BJP still falls ten votes shy of a majority even after factoring in the support of one Independent MP and five nominated MPs. The BJP will fall short even with the backing of 9 MPs from the Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal, which has hinted that it may support such a Bill. It has been said on several times by the Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress Party, which has endorsed the ruling party. 

The AAP element

With three from Delhi and seven from Punjab, the AAP has ten MPs. The AAP's position on the Uniform Civil Code, which comes during its battle with the Congress at a time when opposition parties are banding together for 2024, has generated speculation that its backing may likely push the legislation for the Uniform Civil Code above the majority threshold. However, the BJP and AAP are bitter enemies and are now at odds over a central government law to rein in bureaucrats in Delhi. Since the Congress has failed to support the AAP on this matter, the Arvind Kejriwal-led party has said that it will be extremely challenging for it to join any coalition that includes the Congress.

Future Rajya Sabha Elections

In the third week of July, the Monsoon Session of Parliament is anticipated to start, and elections for 10 Rajya Sabha seats would follow shortly after. Out of the 10 seats, three are in Gujarat, one is in Goa, and six are in West Bengal. Five of the seats in Bengal are now held by the Trinamool Congress, which is in power, while one is held by the Congress. But this time, Bengal could provide the BJP's first Rajya Sabha MP.

All three of the departing members from Gujarat are from the BJP. The BJP also has the Goa Rajya Sabha seat that will soon become vacant.

Four of the eight open seats are from Jammu and Kashmir, while two are for nominees. Both seats are vacant as a result of the resignation of Luizinho Faleiro, a former Trinamool member, and the passing of Hardwar Dubey, a member of the BJP.